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  • 疫情下新能源汽车何去何从?

    发布时间: 2020-05-30 16:27浏览 新能源汽车有哪些 编辑:国外新能源汽车现 新能源汽车网

    疫情之下 新能源汽车发展何去何从?

    2019年,中国将生产和销售124.2万辆和120.6万辆新能源汽车,同比分别下降2.3%和4.0%。这是自中国大力推广新能源汽车以来的10年间,年度生产和销售首次出现负增长。

    2020年1月,春节假期受疫情影响,分别销售了4万辆和4.4万辆新能源汽车,同比分别下降55.4%和54.4%。动力电池装机容量约为2.32千瓦小时,同比下降53%。今年2月,新的皇冠肺炎疫情的影响将进一步显现。截至2月中旬,4S门店重新开业的数量仅为去年同期的5%,这意味着2月份的销售额可能会下降90%。基于这一点,二月份的整体销售情况不容乐观。

    首先,供需受疫情影响较大,产业链企业面临压力。

    1.需求方面:汽车消费、网络租车运营和收费企业需求压力大,短期内难以拉动。

    区别在于食物和饮料的快速消费、徒步旅行和其他服务。作为一个长决策周期的产物,大多数部门的需求不会因为流行病而消散,这只会导致采购的推迟。各部门将从第二季度转移到第四季度。随着流行病的消散,被抑制的消费需求将从一开始就被释放出来。然而,由于第三产业受到的影响更大,中小企业主及其员工的收入将会减少,这可能会抑制增加和再购买人口的需求。因此,据估计,新车的销量在短期内将大幅下降。据采访,从2020年2月到6月,新能源汽车的销量预计将同比下降90%、70%、50%、30%和0%。

    图1受疫情影响的汽车销售趋势推断

    在网上汽车租赁市场,除了流行病导致的出行需求下降之外,在短期内,遏制行业城市运营和供应商损失等问题也迅速爆发。然而,新能源汽车市场具有显著的市场特征。从车险环境来看,拥有B端保险的客户数量至少比拥有B端保险的客户总数高出一半,个人客户比例相对较小。当前的疫情大大减少了对新能源汽车操作平台和驾驶员的再购买和更换需求。

    这种流行病的影响也进一步蔓延到收费运营商。根据采访,二月份的充电量将下降80%以上。据估计,在3-4月份,疫情只会缓慢恢复到疫情前水平的40%-50%,而且要到6月份才能完全恢复。

    图2 BAIC新能源2019年纯电动乘用车风险分布

    账单:10,000/%

    2供给方:消费抑制、上游供给不足等。暂时抑制了整车产量,影响了整个家庭链。

    据推测,疫情预计将于今年4月消除其影响。从1月底的春节假期和全国范围的封锁开始,持续2-3个月的“非常时期”使得消费者无法购买汽车。然而,新能源汽车产业有一个显著的特点是“以销定产”。结果,汽车制造商无法生产。因此,上游连锁企业没有订单,无法安排时限,而且备件供应不足。因此,整个产业链目前处于暂时被抑制的状态。

    然而,近年来,大多数新能源汽车家电制造企业和动力电池制造企业都处于应收账款高、现金流严重的状况。短时间内销售急剧萎缩,家庭商品链供应不足,将加剧部门企业现金流的重要状况,甚至导致部门企业现金流断裂,进一步恶化财务状况。

    表5 2019年前三季度上市公司财务数据

    3企业内部影响:许多成本在短期内被推高

    受疫情影响,新能源汽车的许多成本

    以物流成本为例,根据国家邮政局的数据,1月份快递增长规模指数为169.7,同比下降12%,增长趋势指数为57.8,同比下降19.1%。也许这反映了由于疫情的影响,物流效率已经呈现出不可避免的下降趋势。同时,为了保证应急物资的实时交付,快递等物流运输设施将大量有效的运输能力集中在应急物资的运输上,这将不可避免地导致企业生产资料运输效率降低/成本提高,推高企业生产成本。

    然而,近年来,大多数新能源汽车产权制造企业和动力电池制造企业都处于应收账款高、现金流严重的状况。短时间内销售急剧萎缩,家庭用品供应不足,将加剧部门企业现金流的重要排场,甚至导致部门企业现金流断裂,财务状况进一步恶化。

    第二,随着时间的推移取得进步,加快家庭财产的转化,创造新的模式。

    在党中央的领导下,中央和地方都采取了有力的预防和控制措施。因此,疫情的增长是可控的和暂时的,并不如改变中国新能源汽车产业升级和增长的措施好。相反,在这段时间内,新能源汽车将有更多的机会整理自己的产品线,建立强大的客户粘性,并根据客户需求提升竞争力。危机的出现也将促使许多新能源汽车行业的干预者重新审视并维持其增长,从而加速行业的变革。

    1.加速中国新能源汽车的优胜劣汰,重塑家庭连锁模式。

    流行病对汽车市场的影响似乎是销售环节的影响,但事实上它对整个家庭链的影响。展望未来,这场流行病将重塑房地产链的风格。从优胜劣汰来看,龙头企业具有明显的系统优势。他们有更多的资源来整合以应对紧急情况,他们在资本、技能和客户粘性方面的储蓄增加,这使得总部企业更容易在冲击中生存。据估计,疫情爆发后,龙头企业的优势将进一步增强,家庭用品的集中度将进一步提升。从家庭财产链的方式来看,长期存在于家庭财产链中的供应方式,如“以销定产”和“低库存”,可能会被打破。提前适当的生产和适当的库存将有助于企业成功地度过供应不足和无法在紧急情况下生存的局面。上游采购和制造、次销售和销售的持续优化将加快促销和转换率,加快库存和营销智能化等思考将重塑新能源汽车家庭财产的风格。

    刺激新的消费需求

    由于这种流行病通过密集的液滴传播,这种流行病的增长将刺激一个部门对那些没有汽车的家庭的首次购买需求。根据《经济考察报》和收集到的调查统计数据,55%的受访者所在区域显示出不方便的出行环境,而46%的受访者是因为交通目标差。基于此,多达84.6%的网民认为在疫情过后购买私家车更有必要。

    3刺激新零售模式

    在这个流行的时代,SAIC、威来等企业都提供了网上汽车订购等模式,有效地减少了在商店的等待时间。在线销售已经成为最安全、最简单的消费渠道。流行后,随着供需关系的深入调整,以及互联网、大数据、人工智能技术等技术的快速增长,以在线体验、汽车选择和汽车购买为重点的新能源汽车零售新模式将加速其增长。

    4推广新能源汽车在大数据和无人驾驶等多种场景中的应用。

    In this epidemic situation, big data has played a huge advantage. Information such as mobile phone flags and real-name system for high-speed trains on flights are used to quickly track and simulate the whereabouts of people. In the past, battery data and vehicle operation data were only used to monitor the safe operation of batteries and vehicles. However, driven by the epidemic situation, a large number of chips carried by new energy vehicles can be used for real-time vehicle feedback data, big data analysis, etc. and can play a major role in supporting data such as positioning of specific people and mastering emergencies. Intelligent Internet connection technologies such as unmanned driving: In order to prevent people from contacting each other in this epidemic situation, taxi, online car appointment, express delivery and other business operations have suffered severe setbacks, and related businesses have been temporarily suspended in many places. Unmanned driving can effectively avoid people contacting each other in confined spaces during the process of taking express delivery and traveling. The occurrence of the epidemic situation will also effectively spur the further growth of intelligent Internet connection technologies such as unmanned driving.

    III. Policy Recommendations

    On February 16, 《求是》 magazine published the speech of General Secretary Xi Jinping. General Secretary Xi Jinping said that expanding consumption is one of the main efforts to offset the impact of the epidemic, and traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles should be actively maintained. It can be expected that after the epidemic situation is mastered, the vast new energy automobile property policy will be issued one after another. under the escort of the policy expectation, the lasting good scene of the new energy automobile industry will not change.

    It is suggested to further relax the restrictions on car consumption and increase the supply of license plates, especially the supply of new energy vehicles.

    Cities such as Beishangguangshen have all accepted licensing restrictions such as "yaohao" in recent years due to traffic pressure in the urban road network. take Beijing as an example, 100,000 flexible vehicle distributors are put in each year, of which 60,000 are new energy vehicle distributors, while the new energy distributors have nearly 500,000, with a waiting period of about 9 years, thus showing significant consumption potential. The local authorities may, through the pattern of regional restriction of fuel vehicles, peak regulation restriction and so on, properly tilt the right of way to new energy vehicles, so as to balance the pressure on the road network, appropriately increase the supply of new energy vehicles and contribute more than 100,000 or even hundreds of thousands of sales volume to the consumption of new energy vehicles.

    It is suggested to further guide the electric transformation and encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles in various ways.

    (1) In terms of personal consumption, it is suggested that the purchase of new energy vehicles by families be included in the individual tax relief scale. After the reform of personal income tax, the loan for house purchase may have to be deducted from the personal income tax. The consumption of new energy vehicles belongs to the family's bulk consumption. It is suggested to include the necessary amount into the limitation of personal income tax deduction. At the same time, individuals are encouraged to replace the fuel vehicles they keep with new energy vehicles and to give the necessary amount of replacement subsidies when replacing them.

    (2) In terms of public consumption, at present, there are nearly 9 million vehicles in various forms such as network cars, taxis and official vehicles. It is suggested that the above vehicles be replaced by new energy vehicles within 5-6 years by necessary policy measures, which can not only realize the electric and environmental protection of public travel vehicles, but also contribute 1 million vehicles to the new energy vehicle market every year.

    On the basis of various property policies to be issued in the near future, the proposal will further strengthen the support for new energy vehicle property.

    (1) In the areas of logistics, official business and leasing, the policy of banning the sale of fuel vehicles on a first-come-first-served basis will be implemented. Cities with serious air pollution and cities with high penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be encouraged to ban the sale of fuel vehicles on a first-come-first-served basis.

    (2) Accelerating the support of charging foundation measures such as public charging piles and personal charging piles. At present, the support of public charging piles and private charging piles in our country is far from expected. We should vigorously strengthen the support of charging foundation measures and improve consumers' purchasing beliefs.

    (3) Delaying subsidies

    尽管中国的新能源汽车产业已经发展了10多年,但新能源汽车的生产和销售与整体汽车市场有所不同,更多的是受政策驱动。根据最近的政策趋势,我们可以认为中国的新能源汽车产业将在2020年迎来一波政策盈余。随着疫情爆发后消费需求的释放,中国新能源汽车产业也将在未来几年迎来又一个整合、创新和高质量增长的黄金时期。据估计,2020年新能源汽车的年销量预计将达到140万辆,比2019年增长约20%,回到推广渠道。(本文作者是李东昌,现任中智华硕新能源投资部总经理)

    标签: 新能源汽车前景

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